ISII
Window III · Technology

Six Systemic Technologies are set to be the determinants of sovereignty, and only two or three countries and blocs have a chance

Every existing index measures who invents the most. None measures the leverage states actually use against each other. ISII built the first instrument that scores, at each chokepoint, who holds leverage — and who is exposed to it.

The problem

That leverage is already being exercised.

Technology has stopped being a sector of the economy. It is the structure of the economy — and will be a critical determinant of power itself. Advantage now flows through chokepoints and the possession of future technologies, and both superpowers are already well positioned.

Compute
One island fabricates c.90% of advanced logic
Data
Captured at platform scale by two states
Platforms
America holds the top of the market; Europe is absent
Energy
China expands generation at 3× America’s rate
Materials
China processes 60–90% of rare earths
Standards
Europe writes the rules technology must obey
Infrastructure
One firm holds c.31% of telecom equipment

Read down the map: every economy on Earth sits downstream of at least two chokepoints it does not hold. Only two appear as holders three or more times.

The instrument

The Technology Index

Four numbers per economy: Grip — the leverage you hold over others; Exposure — the leverage others hold over you; Net Leverage; and Chokepoints Held — a simple count, like counting warheads.

The chokepoint superpower

China is the chokepoint superpower — four chokepoints held, all physical, all durable under any change in AI architecture.

Power that depends on others

America’s grip is deep and narrow: it authors the systems while depending on Taiwan for fabrication, Korea for memory, Europe for tools, China for materials.

Rules without the levers

Europe owns the tools and the rules — and regulates a system it does not run. Its net leverage is negative.

Methodology +

Each economy receives a Grip and an Exposure score at each of the seven chokepoints, on a published anchor scale — sole supplier of a critical chokepoint scores 9–10; no presence scores 0. Every one of the 112 cells cites its evidence. The scoring was stress-tested across 10,000 simulations: the top four ranks never move. An expert coding panel, extended datasets and full Taiwan, Netherlands and Japan scoring complete before the first public edition in autumn 2026.

The research behind the window

Technologies Shaping the Future — ISII & Force for Good, 2026

Navigated well, the transition could more than triple global GDP to roughly US$350 trillion by mid-century. Technology is no longer a sector of the economy — it is the structure of the economy.

AI is the keystone: it uniquely accelerates every other major technology. Whoever leads AI sets the pace of everything else — and its energy demands are the hard constraint that binds first.

Markets are mispricing the structure: seven stocks are a third of the S&P 500, and today’s AI architecture carries a priced correction risk of 30–50% in the mid case. IBM, AT&T and Cisco show what such transitions cost.

Technology as a Force for Good — Force for Good, 2025

The world’s development goals are unaffordable through aid — US$14–17 trillion a year. Strategically deployed, technology converts that cost into a US$15 trillion annual market.

The opportunity has an address: India alone is US$2.9 trillion a year, and twenty-nine countries each hold opportunities above US$100 billion. The top five account for 44% of the total.

Over four billion people are not yet meaningfully inside the digital economy. Whoever holds the underlying infrastructure sets the terms on which they enter — and captures the value of their participation.

Is your country positioned for value in the transition to the Systems Age?

A confidential briefing deconstructs your technological sovereignty exposure and transition readiness— which pressures are live, which are latent, and which chokepoints survive the next turn of the architecture.

Request a technology-sovereignty briefing